The Partnership sends updates for the most important economic indicators each month. If you would like to opt-in to receive these updates, please click here.

Estimated Read Time: 3 minute

U.S. CRUDE PRODUCTION
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates domestic crude production hit a record of 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in November ’24. EIA expected a slight increase to 13.6 million b/d in December ’24, with production remaining stable around that level for all of ‘25.

Activity in the oil and gas sector for Texas and surrounding states increased slightly in the fourth quarter according to a recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; 25.4 percent of responding executives said business activity increased for their firm between the third and fourth quarters of ’24 compared to 19.4 who said it fell. Executives are upbeat about the future, with 29.9 percent saying their company’s outlook improved between the third and fourth quarters compared to 22.8 percent saying it worsened. Producers expect a friendlier regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration. But without significant price increases, regulatory changes will have a moderate effect on production.

CRUDE PRICES
Oil prices peaked in the summer of ’22 following Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine and have fallen since. Brent, the global crude benchmark, averaged $74.35 per barrel in November ’24, down from $122.71 in June ‘22. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light sweet crude, averaged $69.95 in November ‘24, down from $114.89 in June ‘22. EIA projects WTI will average slightly under $70 in ’25.  The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows executives in the region expect WTI to sell for $68 a barrel on average in ’25 and are planning their exploration budgets accordingly.

Global consumption of oil and other liquid fuels is largely unchanged from a year ago at roughly 103 million b/d. EIA projects it will grow slightly to 105 million b/d by November ‘25, driven by demand from developing countries. Increased crude production from non-OPEC countries is expected to push prices down even with growing consumption.

NATURAL GAS
U.S. natural gas production slipped to 113.5 billion cubic feet per day in November ’24 versus 115.6 billion in November ’23. Natural gas inventories were above the average for the preceding five years as of November ‘24 but are expected to fall during the winter heating season with spot prices rising from around $2.10 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) in November ’24 to over $3. EIA projects prices will drop in the spring before ticking up again in late summer ’25. 

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research.

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@houston.org

Colin Baker
Manager of Economic Research
bakerc@houston.org