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Health Care, Construction, Other Sectors to Drive Houston Job Growth in 2020

Published Dec 06, 2019 by A.J. Mistretta

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Buoyed by gains in health care, construction and other key sectors, the Houston area is expected to gain more than 42,000 new jobs in the coming year. That’s according to the Greater Houston Partnership’s 2020 Employment Forecast released this week at the organization’s Houston Region Economic Outlook. The half-day event featured several industry leaders and economists who discussed what they’re seeing in the regional, national and global economies. 

The Partnership expects the health care, government, accommodation and food services, and construction sectors to drive job growth in Houston in 2020. Losses are likely in the energy, retail trade and information sectors.

"As Houston prepares to enter the 2020s, the region needs a new set of growth engines," said Patrick Jankowski, the Partnership’s Senior Vice president of Research. "Perhaps they will emerge from the Texas Medical Center, the Innovation Corridor or Houston's Energy Corridor. Until those new engines emerge, Houston's growth will depend heavily on the U.S. and global economies. Fortunately, both should perform reasonably well next year."

Jankowski said the 42,300 jobs the region is expected to gain in 2020 is more modest than the job gains made this year. While most sectors will see moderate employment increases, Jankowski points to a downturn that’s already begun in the energy industry that will stymie the broader jobs picture. Investment in the oil and gas sector is drying up, resulting in fewer wells being drilled, a drop in the rig count and a decline in new equipment orders. That picture, coupled with an over-saturated local real estate market, is similar to what Houston experienced coming out of the oil bust of the 1980s. “We’re not having a repeat of the ‘80s but it’s going to seem a lot more like that as we move through this period,” Jankowski said. 

In a keynote presentation looking at the broader landscape, Helen Currie, Chief Economist with energy giant ConocoPhillips, characterized the global economy as relatively healthy. “Based on recent downward revisions, we now project 3.1% global growth for this year,” Currie said. “We believe 2020 will be a better year economically than 2019, but keep in mind 2019 has still been pretty good.”

Though global manufacturing has been down along with consumer confidence, Currie said she expects government stimulus policies around the world will boost growth and steer economies back to trend in 2020. 

Jankowski said that despite the near-term concerns for Houston, he’s bullish on the region’s long-term health. “In Houston, history has always been on the side of the optimist, and that’s a safe bet.” 

Click here to see the full report, including additional jobs figures by industry. For a look back at the economy in 2019 by industry, click here for the Houston Economic Highlights report. And sign up to stay informed about new Partnership research. 

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Every Texas legislative session brings something new: bold policies, fresh faces on the chamber floor, or, in this case, a new focus on making the Texas economy bigger and better. This year, the Texas House and Senate have restructured their standing committees, creating stand-alone panels to emphasize economic development and other key drivers of the state’s economy. In the Texas Senate, returning Senator Phil King will chair the newly formed Committee on Economic Development. Previously, the committee was a policy-combination focusing on Natural Resources and Economic Development. King, who previously served as Vice-Chair for the Senate Committee on Business & Commerce, said he is excited to take on the leadership position in the upper chamber. “I am honored that Lt. Gov. Patrick has entrusted me to lead the Economic Development Committee in Texas, which has the eighth largest economy in the world,” Senator King said in a statement to the Partnership. “We will use this session to discuss policy solutions that can continue to drive our state's economic growth and prosperity over the next two years and beyond. I look forward to hearing from business leaders and local officials from across the state on how we can build upon the Texas Miracle in their communities.” The Texas House created the Committee on Trade, Workforce, and Economic Development. Under first-term Speaker Dustin Burrows, the House will have a committee focused on the workforce and expanding the talent pipeline for the first time. Committee assignments for the Texas House have yet to be released.  Burrows told the Partnership he is committed to seeing Texas build a bigger and better economic engine for future generations.  "The Texas House remains focused on delivering legislative solutions that will strengthen our state's mighty economy and provide more economic opportunities for hardworking Texans," said Speaker Dustin Burrows. "This session, the House's new Committee on Trade, Workforce, and Economic Development will take a comprehensive approach to ensuring businesses have the freedom and tools to thrive in our state, with a newly created subcommittee concentrating on policies to bolster the Texas workforce. The House will also prioritize support for small businesses through legislation that aims to unleash the power of Texas entrepreneurship in communities across the state by cutting taxes and reforming the regulatory process." It’s too soon to say which bills will go to these committees. For now, a review of the interim reports from the previous committees points to support of key policy priorities for the Partnership: Early Childhood Education: the House and Senate both recognized a statewide need for expanding programs that support families and young children in education/developmental programs The successful implementation of the Lone Star Workforce of the Future Fund [HB 1755 - 89(R)] is compelling lawmakers to invest further in innovation and growth for apprenticeship and training programs. Expanding the available workforce talent pool will remain a priority for the 89th Texas Legislature. Click below to read the full interim reports from the following committees: Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Economic Development House Committee on International Relations and Economic Development To learn more about the Partnership's Legislative Priorities, click here. For more updates and alerts on the Texas Legislature, click here to sign up for our weekly newsletter.
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