Houston Region May Account for Majority of Economic Gains in Texas

Published Nov 15, 2019 by A.J. Mistretta

Houston's economy has been consistently growing at a steady pace, and one expert says if it continues, the area could account for as much as 30% of the economic gains in Texas over the next 25 years.

That’s according to a new analysis from Texas economist Ray Perryman. Based on current expectations, real gross product in Houston could grow as much as 3.13% annually - or more than 75% - through 2045, which would add more than $667 billion to the state’s economy. That’s more than any other Texas metro, with the Dallas region expected to make up 24% of growth, followed by Austin at 9% and San Antonio at 7%.

Perryman’s report also forecasts employment will grow by 1.7 million jobs for a total of 4.9 million by 2045. “The most significant job gains in the area are projected to be in the services sector, with employment expanding by 2.14% annually. Growth in output will be led by manufacturing at a 3.83% annual pace, followed by information at 3.66%,” according to the report.

Total personal income in the Houston region is expected to increase 3.35% to $846.5 billion.

Nearly 73% of Texans live in the state’s largest metro regions. That percentage has been steadily rising in recent decades. Those large metro areas drive overall growth in the state economy, accounting for eight out of every 10 new jobs and about $8 out of every $10 in new output (real gross product) over the long-term horizon, according to the report.

Get the latest Houston area employment figures and more about the local economy.