Skip to main content

Latest Analysis: Unemployment Claims Across Houston Jump to 180,000; Global GDP Expected to Decline Up to 30%

Published Apr 14, 2020 by A.J. Mistretta

New data is beginning to show the dramatic impact the coronavirus is having on Houston’s economy. Partnership Senior Vice President of Research Patrick Jankowski used the latest reports to provide a status update on the region’s economic landscape on April 14. 

Watch Jankowski’s presentation via the link to the right. Here are a few highlights:

  • There are now nearly 600,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 21,000 deaths. Here in Houston there are now roughly 6,000 confirmed cases across the region. In just two weeks, the number of cases in the Houston area has quadrupled. 
  • It’s important to understand the global impact of the virus on a globally connected city like Houston. The latest forecast issued by the International Monetary Fund (its first since the pandemic began) shows global GDP shrinking 3%, which would dwarf the 0.9% decline experienced during the Great Recession of 2009. 
  • IMF has also mapped where they believe the worst of the economic fallout will happen, with Italy and the Baltic States showing the largest contraction.  
  • With roughly 450,000 jobs and 30% of GDP in the region tied to global trade, any drop on that front will have a significant impact on Houston. The World Trade Organization estimates global trade will fall between 10-30%. 
  • According to a survey from McKinsey & Co., 52% of respondents say they are cutting back on their spending. That will have a significant chilling effect on U.S. growth and the overall economy. Over 50% of respondents also believe it will take more than 4 months before we are able to return to normal behavior. 
  • A Wall Street Journal survey of economists shows that on average respondents believe the economy will shrink by about 25% in the second quarter. 
  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance now total 180,000 over the last three weeks, that’s compared to about 10,000 claims on average for a three-week period. Jankowski said he wouldn’t be surprised if jobless claims climb to 250,000 or more in total for March and April. 
  • On the aviation front, the Transportation Safety Administration might handle 2.5 million passengers during a normal day, but that has fallen to about 100,000 per day in recent weeks. 
  • Jankowski also provided an overview of a recent Partnership survey of small business members. See those results
     

Visit the Partnership's COVID-19 Resource page for updates, guidance for employers and more information. And sign up for daily email alerts from the Partnership as the situation develops. 

Related News

Education

New Report Highlights 'Substantial Improvements' at HISD Schools

4/22/25
A new report and podcast are casting a national spotlight on one of the most important education stories in the state – the dramatic turnaround at Houston ISD under Superintendent Mike Miles. The Manhattan Institute's City Journal's 10 Blocks podcast, which features public policy conversations, recently interviewed education analyst Neetu Arnold about her report on the reforms at HISD. Arnold discusses the New Education System, which has raised teacher pay at underperforming schools, expanded instructional time, and created a more structured learning environment. These changes have already shown promising results, including improved student outcomes and fewer disciplinary actions. In January, the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results also showed the progress the district has made. Here are a few of the highlights: Fourth-grade reading proficiency saw a 4% rise compared to flat or declining trends nationwide.  In Fourth-grade reading, Black students reversed a long-standing decline, achieving an 8-point increase in their scale scores. Economically disadvantaged students, who make up 78% of HISD’s population, outpaced growth rates in comparable districts. For fourth-graders, the proficiency rate is approaching HISD’s historic high of 24% from 2011. In middle school, the 21% proficiency rate represents the highest reading performance in the past two decades. “The 2024 NAEP results speak for themselves and continue to validate the tremendous achievement gains we saw throughout last school year. This is a testament to our students and especially the teachers and staff who work every day in the classroom, providing high-quality instruction to every student.” - Greater Houston Partnership President and CEO Steve Kean said in January. The Partnership recognizes that a strong public education system is essential to creating economic opportunity, strengthening families, and securing Houston’s long-term competitiveness. Arnold acknowledges the initial resistance to these reforms, but points to the data-driven improvements as evidence of why bold action was needed. Her podcast interview makes the case that Houston ISD’s turnaround can serve as a model for other large urban districts across the country.    
Read More
Membership

Partnership Members Making News - April

4/21/25
The Greater Houston Partnership celebrates our members making important announcements and sharing news about their operations and impact in our region. Learn more about some of those announcements over the last month below.  Business Moves Eight Houston companies have been named to Fortune’s third annual list of America’s Most Innovative Companies, including Houston Methodist, ExxonMobil, NRG Energy, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, Texas Children’s Hospital, Sysco, and Chevron. MD Anderson breaks ground on a new five-story, 470,000-square-foot ambulatory surgery center in Sugar Land. Fervo Energy ranks in the top 10 on Time magazine and Statista’s new list of America’s Top GreenTech Companies of 2025, recognizing sustainability-focused companies based on factors such as impact, financial strength, and innovation. Houston-based private equity firm EnCap Investment LP has committed $2.5 billion to launch two new portfolio companies in Fort Worth, Double Eagle Energy Holdings V LLC and Tumbleweed Royalty V LLC. Houston Christian University breaks ground on a $60 million engineering, science and nursing building that will include administrative space and multidisciplinary learning spaces. The University of Houston has started construction of the new William P. Hobby School of Public Affairs academic building, a 42,000-square-foot building to be located in the north side of campus. Fervo Energy expands its flagship geothermal project in Utah through a new power offtake agreement with London-based Shell PLC (NYSE: SHEL). League City City Council has discussed its Westside Master Plan, a strategic initiative to guide the development of the city's remaining undeveloped land. Education Houston Community College has been awarded a $282,000 grant from the Texas Workforce Commission to expand its apprenticeship programs in plumbing, sheet metal work and electrical technology. Rice University and the University of Houston collaborate to improve an emerging carbon capture technique with a product that can be used as fuel, chemicals or as starting materials to produce other compounds. Houston Community College-Katy has held a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the campus’ new greenhouse, preparing students for careers in modern agriculture and environmental science. Five student-founded startups have been named finalists for Rice University's prestigious pitch competition, H. Albert Napier Rice Launch Challenge, hosted by Rice University’s Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Energy Transition  Dow aims to use next-generation nuclear reactors for clean power and steam at a Texas manufacturing complex in collaboration with X-energy. Rice and Exxon aim to develop “systematic and comprehensive solutions” to support the global energy transition with materials science, polymers and catalysts, high-performance computing and applied mathematics from the university. Health Care St. Luke’s Health has awarded $1.5 million in grants to nonprofit agencies for projects relating to the health and well-being of those in underserved communities, including access to health care and health services, mental health, food insecurity, safe shelter and housing, violence prevention and human trafficking. HCA Houston Healthcare and Houston Methodist Hospital have received Premier's Everest Award, which recognizes hospitals that have both the highest current performance and the fastest long-term improvement in the five years of trend data analyzed by the researchers.  Innovation  Greentown Labs announces newest startups to join Houston climatetech incubator, specializing in various "green" applications, from converting plastic waste into sustainable materials to developing energy-storage solutions. The new Rice Nexus located at Rice University is partnering with Google Public Sector and Non Sibi Ventures to support high-potential AI-focused startups. Axiom Space progresses an orbital data center push in partnership with international telecommunications company Kepler Communications. Researchers from Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Houston have developed a new blood-filtering machine that poses fewer risks to pediatric patients with hyperleukocytosis. Transportation  The Houston Metropolitan Transit Authority has opened a new, direct line bus route called 500 IAH Downtown Direct, picking up travelers from the George R. Brown Convention Center and taking them directly to George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) and vice versa. United Airlines plans to start construction of its new 50,000-square-foot Terminal B club this summer, the largest in the United system. The Houston Metropolitan Transit Authority is listed to start construction on 56 Airline/Montrose this summer as the next phase of its 20-mile project.    If you are a member and want us to help communicate news about your organization, please send a press release or information about the announcement to member.engagement@houston.org and we will share it with our content team for possible inclusion in an upcoming roundup. Learn more about Partnership membership. 
Read More

Related Events

Membership

Future of Texas - Homelessness in Houston

Join us for an engaging panel discussion on homelessness in the Houston area, featuring key leaders working across housing, mental health, public safety, and community support. Panelists include Wayne Young, CEO of…

Learn More
Learn More
Executive Partners