Skip to main content

Latest Analysis: Unemployment Claims Across Houston Jump to 180,000; Global GDP Expected to Decline Up to 30%

Published Apr 14, 2020 by A.J. Mistretta

New data is beginning to show the dramatic impact the coronavirus is having on Houston’s economy. Partnership Senior Vice President of Research Patrick Jankowski used the latest reports to provide a status update on the region’s economic landscape on April 14. 

Watch Jankowski’s presentation via the link to the right. Here are a few highlights:

  • There are now nearly 600,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 21,000 deaths. Here in Houston there are now roughly 6,000 confirmed cases across the region. In just two weeks, the number of cases in the Houston area has quadrupled. 
  • It’s important to understand the global impact of the virus on a globally connected city like Houston. The latest forecast issued by the International Monetary Fund (its first since the pandemic began) shows global GDP shrinking 3%, which would dwarf the 0.9% decline experienced during the Great Recession of 2009. 
  • IMF has also mapped where they believe the worst of the economic fallout will happen, with Italy and the Baltic States showing the largest contraction.  
  • With roughly 450,000 jobs and 30% of GDP in the region tied to global trade, any drop on that front will have a significant impact on Houston. The World Trade Organization estimates global trade will fall between 10-30%. 
  • According to a survey from McKinsey & Co., 52% of respondents say they are cutting back on their spending. That will have a significant chilling effect on U.S. growth and the overall economy. Over 50% of respondents also believe it will take more than 4 months before we are able to return to normal behavior. 
  • A Wall Street Journal survey of economists shows that on average respondents believe the economy will shrink by about 25% in the second quarter. 
  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance now total 180,000 over the last three weeks, that’s compared to about 10,000 claims on average for a three-week period. Jankowski said he wouldn’t be surprised if jobless claims climb to 250,000 or more in total for March and April. 
  • On the aviation front, the Transportation Safety Administration might handle 2.5 million passengers during a normal day, but that has fallen to about 100,000 per day in recent weeks. 
  • Jankowski also provided an overview of a recent Partnership survey of small business members. See those results
     

Visit the Partnership's COVID-19 Resource page for updates, guidance for employers and more information. And sign up for daily email alerts from the Partnership as the situation develops. 

Related News

Membership

Fall 2025 New Partnership Members

11/6/24
The Greater Houston Partnership welcomed 30 new member companies this fall. The Partnership works to connect companies with resources, information and networking opportunities to help increase business while also providing a platform to influence the direction of the region. New members include: Arete Public Affairs: Arete Public Affairs is a comprehensive consulting firm with over three decades of experience specializing in federal, state, and local government relations, public affairs, and strategic business development. Website.  AVI-SPL: AVI-SPL is a digital enablement solutions provider that designs, integrates, manages, and supports on-site and cloud-based communications and collaboration technologies for organizations around the globe. Website  BlueByrd: BlueByrd is a marketing consulting that helps businesses increase revenue by providing sales and marketing tools, tactics, and strategies. Website.  Bridgehead IT:  Bridgehead IT, is a full-service technology partner dedicated to IT services in San Antonio and beyond. Website.  Coalition for the Homeless of Houston/Harris County, Inc.: Coalition for the Homeless of Houston/Harris County acts as a catalyst, uniting partners and maximizing resources to move people experiencing homelessness into permanent housing with supportive services. Website.  Edelman: Edelman is a global communications firm that partners with businesses and organizations to evolve, promote and protect their brands and reputations. Website.  Garver, LLC: Garver is an employee-owned engineering, planning, and environmental services firm focused on aviation, transportation, buildings, federal, water and wastewater services; surveying; advisory services; and construction engineering and inspection. Website.  Genpact: Genpact is a global professional services firm that uses data, technology, AI, and digital operations to help companies solve challenges and grow: Website.  Hatch: Hatch combines vast engineering and business knowledge, working in partnership with clients to develop market strategies, manage and optimize production, develop new game-changing technologies, and design and deliver complex capital projects. Website.  Kelly Zuniga Consulting: Kelly Zuniga Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in supporting and leading teams that focus on the successful execution of donor-based philanthropy advisory services. Website.  Loring Consulting Engineers: Loring Consulting Engineers provides comprehensive building and infrastructure systems design services for every building type. Website.  Meow Wolf Houston: Meow Wolf is an American arts and entertainment company that creates interactive, immersive art installations. Website.  Modern Animal: Modern Animal is a veterinary clinic company that uses technology and design to provide a better veterinary experience for pets and their owners. Website.  Murphy's Corporate Housing Associates: Murphy's Corporate Housing Associates sets the standard for furnished corporate housing solutions with customized packages, ideal locations, and 24/7 customer care. Website.  Nordstrom Rack: Nordstrom Rack is a department store chain that sells clothing, shoes, accessories, and home decor at a discount. Website.  PROS, Inc.: PROS, Inc. provides AI-based solutions that power commerce in the digital economy. Website.  Right Choice Construction: Right Choice Construction is Houston’s premier General Contractor specializing in commercial projects, including ground-up construction, steel buildings, warehouses, remodels, and build-outs for retail stores, restaurants, banks, and shopping centers. Website.  Rock Career Development: Rock Career Development is a boutique career services firm in Houston, Texas that helps athletes and professionals transition to new opportunities and helps organizations improve employee engagement and retention. Website.  ROCO: ROCO is a dynamic and innovative professional chamber orchestra that flexes from 1 to 40 musicians from all over the US and Canada, with guest conductors from around the globe. Website.  Skipper Bio Med: Skipper Bio Med is a research consultancy that provides pro bono services to academic and industry research groups that are developing promising lung and pancreatic cancer technologies. Website.  Songwon International America's, Inc: Songwon International America's, Inc is the second largest manufacturer & supplier of polymer stabilizers in the world, offers a very broad range of specialty chemicals. Website.  Stewart Title Company: Stewart Title Company provides services and resources for a variety of customers across the real estate industry. Website.  TGS Cedar Port Partners Industrial Park: TGS Cedar Port Industrial Park is the largest master-planned rail-and-barge-served industrial park in the U.S., offering rail-served, e-commerce, distribution, cold-storage, and manufacturing users unmatched resources for the future of industrial logistics and development. Website.  The Alexander Group: The Alexander Group has conducted thousands of executive searches since its inception in 1983. Website.  The National MS Society: The National MS Society is here to help people in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas get the information, connections and support needed to move their lives forward and find their place in the MS movement. Website.  The Parent Teacher Collaborative: The Parent Teacher Collaborative is a school and community-based organization that aims to improve student outcomes by building strong collaborative partnerships between parents, educators, and community members. Website.  The Texas Heart Institute: The Texas Heart Institute is an world-class, independent, nonprofit organization that is improving cardiovascular health through trailblazing research, thought leadership, education, and patient care. Website.  TMEIC Corporation Americas: TMEIC Corporation Americas provides diverse solutions to realize carbon neutrality. Website.  WGU Texas and South Region: WGU Texas and South Region is a non-profit, online university that offers affordable, competency-based degrees in high-demand fields. Website.  Winston & Strawn LLP: Winston & Strawn LLP is a global law firm with more than 975 attorneys in the United States, Europe, Asia, and South America. Website.  Click here to see the Partnership's Membership Directory. To learn more about membership with the Greater Houston Partnership click here, or contact membership@houston.org.
Read More
Public Policy

Securing Essential Water Infrastructure for Sustainable Growth in Texas

10/28/24
People are moving to Texas, and businesses are building new facilities. That rapid growth is straining resources, particularly water. According to a new report, Texas must invest $154 billion over the next 50 years in new water supply and infrastructure—critical needs to support the state’s expanding population and booming industries. The report from Texas 2036, a nonpartisan public policy think tank, highlights the urgency of this investment. Without reliable water infrastructure, Texas could face the loss of a million jobs and more than $160 billion in economic impact over the next five decades. The report underscores a stark reality: a comprehensive, sustainable funding strategy for water is necessary to keep Texas economically resilient and competitive. Investment Needs The 2022 Texas Water Plan and US EPA initially estimated that Texas would need $132 billion in water infrastructure investments over the next 50 years. However, Texas 2036 has adjusted this figure for inflation, raising the projected cost to $154 billion. While state and federal programs—such as the State Water Implementation Fund for Texas (SWIFT) and the newly established Texas Water Fund—are expected to provide around $40-45 billion in financial support over the coming decades, a significant long-term funding gap persists.   Click to expand Texas 2036 graphic showing cost estimate for water infrastructure needs Dual Challenges According to the report, Texas faces two challenges. First, the state must develop a broad, diversified water supply portfolio to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population and economy while strengthening resilience to future droughts. The water supply gap poses additional risks to the state’s electricity generation, as low water levels during droughts could limit power from natural gas, nuclear and coal plants. Second, aging and deteriorating drinking water and wastewater systems. Over the past five years, nearly 3,000 boil water notices have been issued annually, leaving communities without reliable water service.  Impact on Industries A severe, prolonged drought would have widespread effects on industries across Texas. Manufacturing, a key driver of the state’s economy, is one example.  The top five manufacturing regions—Dallas-Fort Worth, the Greater Houston area, East Texas (Beaumont, Tyler, Lufkin), Central Texas (College Station, Temple, Waco), and South Central Texas (San Antonio, Victoria)—together account for 82% of the state’s manufacturing GDP and 77% of its manufacturing jobs. According to research from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, within the next 20 years, these regions could face nearly $20.8 billion in lost manufacturing GDP and over 116,000 job losses due to water shortages during a drought of record. The potential economic fallout underscores the need for immediate and strategic investments in water infrastructure to safeguard key industries and the communities that rely on them. Advocacy at the Capitol  Water infrastructure is one of the executive priorities for the Greater Houston Partnership for the 89th Texas Legislative Session. These priorities serve as a roadmap for the upcoming session, highlighting key areas of interest for the business community. The Partnership supports increased funding for the Texas Water Fund, preferably establishing a dedicated funding stream to ensure long-term, sustainable investments in the state’s water resources.   Learn more about how the Partnership advances strong policy that fosters long-term growth and upward economic mobility for the region.  
Read More

Related Events

Economic Development

State of the Port

What does the future hold for Port Houston and its role as a global commerce hub? Join us at the State of the Port on Friday, November 22 to uncover the exciting developments…

Learn More
Learn More
Executive Partners